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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 26, 2009·United Center, Chicago

Minnesota Wild 1, Chicago Blackhawks 3

Away

Minnesota Wild

1

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 78% of the time.

CHI winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN0100615121
CHI210011114335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:23CHIDave BollandAssists: Andrew Ladd, Jordan Hendry · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:13CHITroy BrouwerPPGWGAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.53 xG0–2
  3. P3 3:29MINAndrew BrunetteAssists: Antti Miettinen, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.16 xG1–2
  4. P3 6:54CHIPatrick KaneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 4:54CHIPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 12:13MINShane Hnidy: Fighting5 min · PPG
  3. P1 12:13CHIJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 15:35MINChuck Kobasew: High sticking2 min
  5. P1 19:34CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 3:23MINNiklas Backstrom: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 9:08CHICam Barker: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 14:24CHITomas Kopecky: Boarding2 min
  9. P2 17:17MINCal Clutterbuck: Boarding2 min
  10. P3 1:36CHIDave Bolland: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 10:02CHIBrian Campbell: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 14:54MINBenoit Pouliot: Diving2 min
  13. P3 14:54CHICam Barker: Interference2 min
  14. P3 15:52MINMarek Zidlicky: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Madden
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINCHI
21Shots on goal35
1.2Expected goals2.6
46Shot attempts56
33Faceoffs won17
6Power plays4
15Penalty minutes19
31Hits21
16Blocked shots17
2Giveaways5
0Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 2.6 xGMIN 1.2 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1009 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.88 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 78% of the time.

CHI winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).