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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 27, 2009·Verizon Center, Washington

Philadelphia Flyers 2, Washington Capitals 4

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

2

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.

WSH winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI010213020243
WSH011215210436

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 3:06PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Mike Richards, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P2 14:29PHIBraydon CoburnPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P2 16:08WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Jeff Schultz · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
  4. P2 18:12WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Keith Aucoin · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
  5. P3 5:24WSHAlexander SeminGWGAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:14WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin · Backhand, 0.62 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 17:51PHIOle-Kristian Tollefsen: Cross checking2 min
  2. P2 1:16WSHBrendan Morrison: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 3:58WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 11:12PHIDaniel Carcillo: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 11:31PHIDarroll Powe: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P2 14:20WSHTyler Sloan: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 17:01PHIMika Pyorala: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P3 2:42WSHJeff Schultz: Interference2 min
  9. P3 8:47WSHMike Knuble: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Morrison won the faceoff against Pyorala
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIWSH
43Shots on goal36
3.9Expected goals5.0
81Shot attempts58
32Faceoffs won37
5Power plays4
8Penalty minutes10
10Hits24
13Blocked shots19
8Giveaways9
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 5.0 xGPHI 3.9 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 67/100 · #388 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.58 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 13% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.

WSH winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).