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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 27, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Detroit Red Wings 5, Vancouver Canucks 4

Away

Detroit Red Wings

5

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.

VAN winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET113015414542
VAN2808210426

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:30VANHenrik SedinAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
  2. P1 7:05VANChristian EhrhoffAssists: Ryan Kesler, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
  3. P1 15:47DETTomas HolmstromAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
  4. P3 3:51DETNiklas KronwallUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. P3 5:05VANMathieu SchneiderPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
  6. P3 6:05DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Jason Williams, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
  7. P3 9:31DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Brian Rafalski, Tomas Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
  8. P3 12:03VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–4
  9. P3 14:57DETJason WilliamsPPGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Todd Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 12:10DETBrett Lebda: Delaying game2 min
  2. P2 9:27DETBrad May: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 9:27VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 12:53VANShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min
  5. P3 4:22DETValtteri Filppula: High sticking2 min · PPG
  6. P3 8:18VANKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 10:39DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P3 11:36DETBrad Stuart: Boarding2 min
  9. P3 14:43VANWillie Mitchell: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Sedin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETVAN
42Shots on goal26
2.9Expected goals2.4
64Shot attempts51
31Faceoffs won32
3Power plays4
13Penalty minutes11
16Hits17
13Blocked shots12
7Giveaways8
5Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.4 xGDET 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 97/100 · #16 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.63 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 16% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +37 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.

VAN winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).