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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 28, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Buffalo Sabres 4, New Jersey Devils 1

Away

Buffalo Sabres

4

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.

NJD winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF2140627427
NJD07110015132

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:21BUFClarke MacArthurAssists: Craig Rivet, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–0
  2. P1 6:00BUFTim KennedyGWGAssists: Jochen Hecht, Steve Montador · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG2–0
  3. P2 4:17NJDAndy GreeneAssists: Zach Parise, Jamie Langenbrunner · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
  4. P3 9:25BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Matt Ellis, Steve Montador · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
  5. P3 17:21BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Chris Butler, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 12:05BUFSteve Montador: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 12:05NJDDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 2:56BUFPaul Gaustad: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 10:01NJDIlkka Pikkarainen: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 17:37NJDJohnny Oduya: Holding2 min
  6. P3 11:01BUFJason Pominville: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  7. P3 13:05BUFPaul Gaustad: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 14:37NJDNiclas Bergfors: Too many men on the ice2 min
  9. P3 17:04NJDNiclas Bergfors: High sticking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 18:49BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 19:28BUFMike Grier: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kennedy won the faceoff against Niedermayer
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFNJD
27Shots on goal32
2.3Expected goals2.4
38Shot attempts41
33Faceoffs won23
4Power plays5
12Penalty minutes10
13Hits32
3Blocked shots8
2Giveaways12
13Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.4 xGBUF 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 28/100 · #891 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.96 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.

NJD winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).