Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 28, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

St. Louis Blues 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2

Away

St. Louis Blues

5

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.

CAR winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL3111314518
CAR11405117236

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:32STLDavid PerronAssists: Patrik Berglund, B.J. Crombeen · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:52STLYan StastnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P1 16:08STLJay McClementGWGAssists: David Perron, Darryl Sydor · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–0
  4. P1 19:07CARJoe CorvoPPAssists: Niclas Wallin, Eric Staal · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
  5. P2 9:42STLAndy McDonaldAssists: Keith Tkachuk, Roman Polak · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–1
  6. P3 8:12CARScott WalkerPPUnassisted · Deflected, 0.34 xG4–2
  7. P3 19:08STLDavid PerronENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.54 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 2:35CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:35STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 6:02CARTim Conboy: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 6:02STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 12:24STLDarryl Sydor: Tripping2 min
  6. P1 17:25STLMike Weaver: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  7. P2 2:54STLErik Johnson: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 5:44CARTom Kostopoulos: Charging2 min
  9. P2 16:57STLTyson Strachan: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 6:33STLMike Weaver: Hooking2 min · PPG
  11. P3 13:41STLPaul Kariya: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against McClement
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLCAR
18Shots on goal36
2.7Expected goals4.5
37Shot attempts82
25Faceoffs won36
1Power plays6
22Penalty minutes12
30Hits30
22Blocked shots8
2Giveaways10
4Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 4.5 xGSTL 2.7 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 52/100 · #583 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.97 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.

CAR winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).