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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 28, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Montréal Canadiens 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 6

Away

Montréal Canadiens

1

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.

PIT winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL0901015124
PIT18315214637

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:33PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Bill Guerin, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P2 5:08PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Chris Kunitz, Bill Guerin · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P2 12:58PITMike RuppAssists: Craig Adams, Mark Eaton · Wrist, 0.46 xG0–3
  4. P2 15:33PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
  5. P3 5:39MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez · Snap, 0.36 xG1–4
  6. P3 10:50PITAlex GoligoskiPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Bill Guerin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
  7. P3 16:31PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Chris Bourque · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–6
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 13:23PITMatt Cooke: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 19:40MTLHal Gill: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P2 5:11MTLMatt D'Agostini: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 18:54MTLTomas Plekanec: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 18:54PITBill Guerin: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 2:41MTLJaroslav Spacek: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 4:17PITMark Eaton: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 5:23PITMarc-Andre Fleury: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P3 10:40MTLHal Gill: Delaying game2 min · PPG
  10. P3 15:00MTLJosh Gorges: Holding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Gomez
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLPIT
24Shots on goal37
2.0Expected goals3.8
55Shot attempts57
34Faceoffs won25
3Power plays5
12Penalty minutes8
8Hits16
9Blocked shots15
4Giveaways6
3Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.8 xGMTL 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1060 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.53 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.

PIT winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).