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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 28, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Ottawa Senators 4, Florida Panthers 3

Away

Ottawa Senators

4

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.

FLA winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT1931208429
FLA110115113338

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:44FLASteve ReinprechtAssists: Jordan Leopold, Nathan Horton · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:50OTTMike FisherPPAssists: Filip Kuba, Daniel Alfredsson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P2 1:47FLAStephen WeissAssists: Rostislav Olesz, Jordan Leopold · Tip-in, 0.31 xG1–2
  4. P2 6:24OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Filip Kuba · Slap, 0.48 xG2–2
  5. P2 17:13OTTNick FolignoAssists: Milan Michalek, Chris Campoli · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
  6. P2 17:51OTTJarkko RuutuGWGAssists: Chris Kelly, Chris Campoli · Tip-in, 0.28 xG4–2
  7. P3 3:51FLABryan McCabePPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Nathan Horton · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 7:55OTTJonathan Cheechoo: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 9:00FLACory Stillman: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P1 12:12OTTJonathan Cheechoo: Holding2 min
  4. P1 19:45OTTAlex Kovalev: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 9:19OTTJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 11:29OTTFilip Kuba: Interference2 min
  7. P2 17:15OTTShean Donovan: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 17:15FLAKenndal McArdle: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 2:54OTTChris Phillips: Hooking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 13:41OTTAlexandre Picard: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Weiss
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTFLA
29Shots on goal38
2.5Expected goals3.4
47Shot attempts68
23Faceoffs won31
1Power plays7
19Penalty minutes7
28Hits25
16Blocked shots9
2Giveaways10
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.4 xGOTT 2.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 67/100 · #386 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.80 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.

FLA winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).