Wed, Oct 28, 2009·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 4, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 27 | 19 | 16 | 422 |
| MIN | 07 | 34 | 011 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36NSHJ-P DumontAssists: David Legwand, Steve Sullivan · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 5:33NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Steve Sullivan, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 0:31MINBrent BurnsPPAssists: Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 2:00MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Eric Belanger, Benoit Pouliot · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 2:18MINOwen NolanAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Antti Miettinen · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 6:44NSHMike SantorelliAssists: Joel Ward, Shea Weber · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 10:44NSHJerred SmithsonSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:14MINJames Sheppard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 0:28NSHJ-P Dumont: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:08MINAndrew Brunette: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:00NSHDan Hamhuis: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:00MINMartin Havlat: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:18MINOwen Nolan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:19NSHCody Franson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).