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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 28, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Los Angeles Kings 1, San Jose Sharks 2 (SO)

Away

Los Angeles Kings

1

Final

Shootout

Home

San Jose Sharks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.

SJS winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
LAK0131607031129
SJS0511409022230

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 8:00LAKAlex FrolovAssists: Drew Doughty, Dustin Brown · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P2 14:32SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Douglas Murray, Dan Boyle · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. SJS Patrick Marleau stopped
  2. 2. LAK Michal Handzus scored
  3. 3. SJS Dan Boyle stopped
  4. 4. LAK Jack Johnson stopped
  5. 5. SJS Dany Heatley scored
  6. 6. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
  7. 7. SJS Benn Ferriero stopped
  8. 8. LAK Wayne Simmonds stopped
  9. 9. SJS Joe Thornton stopped
  10. 10. LAK Dustin Brown stopped
  11. 11. SJS Ryane Clowe scored
  12. 12. LAK Jarret Stoll stopped
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 1:19SJSJed Ortmeyer: Holding2 min
  2. P1 12:42LAKMichal Handzus: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 16:59SJSDany Heatley: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 17:36LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Kopitar
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKSJS
29Shots on goal30
3.2Expected goals1.8
59Shot attempts67
26Faceoffs won36
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
12Hits21
28Blocked shots15
2Giveaways10
5Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 1.8 xGLAK 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 31/100 · #861 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.14 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 30% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.

SJS winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).