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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 29, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Washington Capitals 4, Atlanta Thrashers 3

Away

Washington Capitals

4

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 65% of the time.

ATL winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH21318111432
ATL08013320341

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:03WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Brooks Laich · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:56WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
  3. P2 4:10WSHBrendan MorrisonPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Brooks Laich · Snap, 0.14 xG3–0
  4. P3 1:23ATLZach BogosianPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Todd White · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
  5. P3 17:37ATLTodd WhiteAssists: Vyacheslav Kozlov · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:07WSHMike KnubleENGWGAssists: Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–2
  7. P3 19:59ATLZach BogosianAssists: Rich Peverley, Nik Antropov · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 4:51WSHTom Poti: Holding2 min
  2. P1 9:30ATLJim Slater: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 1:52ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 3:38ATLEvander Kane: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 9:51ATLRich Peverley: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 19:51WSHTyler Sloan: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 9:42ATLAnssi Salmela: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against White
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHATL
32Shots on goal41
2.7Expected goals3.6
59Shot attempts63
29Faceoffs won31
5Power plays2
4Penalty minutes10
12Hits18
11Blocked shots19
9Giveaways12
3Takeaways18

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 3.6 xGWSH 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #369 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.96 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 65% of the time.

ATL winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).