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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 29, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Ottawa Senators 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5

Away

Ottawa Senators

2

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.

TBL winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT0904210223
TBL1521428527

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:20TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P2 4:34TBLTodd FedorukAssists: David Hale, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
  3. P2 14:48TBLRyan MaloneGWGAssists: David Hale, Alex Tanguay · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–3
  4. P3 7:09TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Ryan Malone · Snap, 0.07 xG0–4
  5. P3 9:29TBLAlex TanguayAssists: Ryan Malone, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–5
  6. P3 10:17OTTJarkko RuutuAssists: Chris Kelly, Shean Donovan · Snap, 0.07 xG1–5
  7. P3 14:19OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Brian Lee · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 6:19OTTJonathan Cheechoo: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 12:26OTTAlexandre Picard: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 19:18TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 19:18OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 1:01TBLDavid Hale: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 7:51OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 7:51TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 9:02TBLMattias Ohlund: Elbowing2 min
  9. P2 18:21OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 18:21OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 6:48OTTJarkko Ruutu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  12. P3 11:10OTTRyan Shannon: Hooking2 min
  13. P3 19:22TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 19:22OTTJarkko Ruutu: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 19:22TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 0:00OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Halpern won the faceoff against Fisher
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTTBL
23Shots on goal27
1.2Expected goals2.4
42Shot attempts45
24Faceoffs won35
3Power plays6
26Penalty minutes18
10Hits21
9Blocked shots10
10Giveaways9
8Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.4 xGOTT 1.2 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #501 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.55 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.

TBL winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).