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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 29, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

Chicago Blackhawks 0, Nashville Predators 2

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

0

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.

NSH winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI060808022
NSH01015113228

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 14:53NSHJoel WardPPGWGAssists: Francis Bouillon, J-P Dumont · Tip-in, 0.23 xG0–1
  2. P3 19:56NSHJerred SmithsonENAssists: Dave Scatchard · Wrist, 0.66 xG0–2
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 6:57NSHPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 13:57CHIDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 16:33CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 17:56CHIDave Bolland: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 2:56NSHDan Hamhuis: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 8:55NSHPatric Hornqvist: Holding2 min
  7. P2 13:40CHICam Barker: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  8. P2 15:43NSHDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 14:18CHITomas Kopecky: Cross checking2 min
  10. P3 16:13CHIBrent Sopel: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 18:13NSHPatric Hornqvist: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Bolland
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHINSH
22Shots on goal28
1.7Expected goals4.3
49Shot attempts53
28Faceoffs won26
5Power plays6
12Penalty minutes10
15Hits21
12Blocked shots17
7Giveaways8
8Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 4.3 xGCHI 1.7 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 10/100 · #1096 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.81 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.

NSH winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).