Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 29, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Detroit Red Wings 5, Edmonton Oilers 6 (SO)

Away

Detroit Red Wings

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Edmonton Oilers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.

EDM winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DET01528320020545
EDM31221106040633

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:42EDMJean-Francois JacquesAssists: Gilbert Brule, Patrick O'Sullivan · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:09EDMDustin PennerAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky · Backhand, 0.38 xG0–2
  3. P1 12:24EDMAles HemskyPPAssists: Dustin Penner, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
  4. P2 0:58EDMAles HemskyAssists: Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–4
  5. P2 6:15DETDarren HelmAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Brad Stuart · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
  6. P2 9:05EDMShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Denis Grebeshkov, Dustin Penner · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–5
  7. P2 12:50DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Pavel Datsyuk · Snap, 0.09 xG2–5
  8. P3 6:32DETJonathan EricssonAssists: Kris Draper, Patrick Eaves · Slap, 0.02 xG3–5
  9. P3 7:47DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Snap, 0.06 xG4–5
  10. P3 12:53DETPatrick EavesAssists: Darren Helm, Jonathan Ericsson · Snap, 0.06 xG5–5

Shootout

  1. 1. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
  2. 2. DET Jason Williams stopped
  3. 3. EDM Ales Hemsky stopped
  4. 4. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
  5. 5. EDM Patrick O'Sullivan stopped
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 2:10EDMTheo Peckham: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 4:31EDMAndrew Cogliano: Too many men on the ice2 min
  3. P1 11:24DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 4:09DETValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 8:53DETBrett Lebda: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P3 4:00EDMDenis Grebeshkov: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Brule
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETEDM
45Shots on goal33
2.5Expected goals3.6
70Shot attempts40
35Faceoffs won23
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
12Hits11
3Blocked shots15
15Giveaways20
2Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.6 xGDET 2.5 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 91/100 · #90 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.67 · 8 goals in reach · 4-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.

EDM winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).