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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 30, 2009·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (SO)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.

CBJ winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PIT01215212030432
CBJ11121206030332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:13CBJRick NashPPAssists: Derick Brassard, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.48 xG0–1
  2. P2 5:37CBJRick NashAssists: Antoine Vermette, Mike Commodore · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
  3. P2 11:55PITChris KunitzSHAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P2 17:50CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Samuel Pahlsson, Antoine Vermette · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–3
  5. P3 17:04PITRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Martin Skoula, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
  6. P3 17:43PITAlex GoligoskiAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. CBJ Antoine Vermette stopped
  2. 2. PIT Kris Letang stopped
  3. 3. CBJ Rick Nash stopped
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 2:18CBJMike Blunden: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 4:13PITChris Bourque: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 9:19PITMatt Cooke: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 17:01PITBrooks Orpik: Slashing2 min · PPG
  5. P1 18:23PITBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 18:23CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 18:23CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 7:33PITChris Bourque: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 10:01PITBill Guerin: Hooking2 min
  10. P2 15:45CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 19:46PITMike Rupp: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  12. P3 1:14CBJAnton Stralman: Hooking2 min
  13. P3 12:52PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
  14. OT 4:34CBJJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Vermette
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITCBJ
32Shots on goal32
2.4Expected goals2.9
52Shot attempts55
29Faceoffs won34
5Power plays7
16Penalty minutes12
32Hits15
16Blocked shots14
3Giveaways3
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.9 xGPIT 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 78/100 · #228 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.94 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 1% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +41 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.

CBJ winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).