Fri, Oct 30, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 010 | 116 | 00 | 235 |
| BUF | 17 | 114 | 05 | 12 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:11BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Tim Connolly · Slap, 0.64 xG0–1
- P1 18:53TORIan WhitePPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Niklas Hagman · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 10:39BUFTim ConnollyAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 19:22TORMikhail GrabovskiSHAssists: Tomas Kaberle, John Mitchell · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 1:04BUFTim ConnollyPPGWGAssists: Derek Roy, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:46BUFTim Kennedy: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:46TORIan White: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:30BUFCraig Rivet: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:57TORTomas Kaberle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:57TORLee Stempniak: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:54TORRickard Wallin: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:53BUFDrew Stafford: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:29TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:22TORGarnet Exelby: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:22BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:22BUFTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:27BUFTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P3 11:04TORWayne Primeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:06TORMatt Stajan: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Kennedy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).