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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 30, 2009·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Florida Panthers 6, Dallas Stars 5 (SO)

Away

Florida Panthers

6

Final

Shootout

Home

Dallas Stars

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.

DAL winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
FLA3101619041629
DAL213210111030537

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:38FLASteve ReinprechtAssists: Keith Ballard, Nathan Horton · Backhand, 0.37 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:20FLASteve ReinprechtAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–0
  3. P1 15:49FLASteve ReinprechtAssists: Nathan Horton, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–0
  4. P1 17:51DALBrian SutherbyAssists: Tom Wandell, Fabian Brunnstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
  5. P1 19:42DALStephane RobidasPPAssists: Brad Richards, Brenden Morrow · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
  6. P2 2:38FLAJordan LeopoldAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Ville Koistinen · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
  7. P2 3:33DALMike RibeiroAssists: Jamie Benn, Brenden Morrow · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
  8. P2 11:17DALJames NealAssists: Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
  9. P3 1:42FLARostislav OleszUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–4
  10. P3 2:53DALFabian BrunnstromAssists: Brian Sutherby, Tom Wandell · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–5

Shootout

  1. 1. DAL James Neal stopped
  2. 2. FLA Steve Reinprecht stopped
  3. 3. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
  4. 4. FLA Rostislav Olesz scored
  5. 5. DAL Brad Richards stopped
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 5:21FLABryan McCabe: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 19:00FLAKenndal McArdle: High sticking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 0:29DALFabian Brunnstrom: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 6:31DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 6:46FLARostislav Olesz: Interference2 min
  6. P2 15:21FLAMichal Repik: Holding the stick2 min
  7. P2 18:21FLASteve Reinprecht: Hooking2 min
  8. OT 5:00FLABryan McCabe: Elbowing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Weiss
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLADAL
29Shots on goal37
2.6Expected goals2.7
56Shot attempts83
32Faceoffs won26
2Power plays5
12Penalty minutes4
18Hits33
32Blocked shots16
9Giveaways16
9Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 2.7 xGFLA 2.6 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 99/100 · #5 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.53 · 10 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.

DAL winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).