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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 30, 2009·Honda Center, Anaheim

Vancouver Canucks 2, Anaheim Ducks 7

Away

Vancouver Canucks

2

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.

ANA winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN21006022238
ANA110312312734

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:06VANSteve BernierAssists: Willie Mitchell · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P1 4:39VANMason RaymondPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
  3. P1 16:31ANACorey PerryAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
  4. P2 2:29ANAGeorge ParrosAssists: Ryan Carter · Tip-in, 0.30 xG2–2
  5. P2 16:15ANAMike BrownSHGWGAssists: Ryan Carter, James Wisniewski · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
  6. P2 18:07ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Scott Niedermayer · Tip-in, 0.34 xG2–4
  7. P3 3:32ANABobby RyanPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, James Wisniewski · Slap, 0.10 xG2–5
  8. P3 6:12ANABobby RyanAssists: Corey Perry, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–6
  9. P3 18:47ANAJoffrey LupulAssists: Steve Eminger, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–7
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 3:08ANABobby Ryan: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 12:07ANASteve Eminger: Cross checking2 min
  3. P2 9:00ANAPetteri Nokelainen: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 15:13ANACorey Perry: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 16:21VANMason Raymond: High sticking2 min · PPG
  6. P3 3:04VANAlexandre Burrows: Holding the stick2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANANA
38Shots on goal34
3.1Expected goals3.3
62Shot attempts53
34Faceoffs won30
4Power plays2
4Penalty minutes8
14Hits25
6Blocked shots7
10Giveaways15
8Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 3.3 xGVAN 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANAVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #346 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.30 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 22% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.

ANA winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).