Fri, Oct 30, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 1, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 08 | 112 | 125 |
| SJS | 012 | 120 | 214 | 346 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:54SJSRyane CloweAssists: Patrick Marleau, Rob Blake · Backhand, 0.43 xG0–1
- P3 3:59SJSDany HeatleyGWGAssists: Jason Demers, Ryane Clowe · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 9:34COLMatt DucheneSHAssists: Adam Foote · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
- P3 10:04SJSJamie McGinnAssists: Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:13COLMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:44SJSBrad Staubitz: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:25SJSJason Demers: Holding2 min
- P1 17:23COLJohn-Michael Liles: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:01COLDavid Koci: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:03COLScott Hannan: Interference2 min
- P2 14:58SJSJoe Thornton: Interference2 min
- P2 16:56SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:03COLKyle Cumiskey: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:32SJSDan Boyle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).