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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 31, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Carolina Hurricanes 1, Philadelphia Flyers 6

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

1

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.

PHI winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR01112009140
PHI3111829628

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:04PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Chris Pronger, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:30PHIDavid LaliberteGWGAssists: Ryan Parent, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
  3. P1 17:21PHIMatt CarleAssists: Scott Hartnell, Mike Richards · Wrap-around, 0.16 xG0–3
  4. P2 2:56CARBrandon SutterAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Jay Harrison · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P2 3:10PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: David Laliberte, Kimmo Timonen · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–4
  6. P3 8:08PHIBraydon CoburnAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–5
  7. P3 9:38PHIBraydon CoburnAssists: Matt Carle, Ian Laperriere · Slap, 0.02 xG1–6
Penalties (24)
  1. P1 1:29PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 4:54PHIMika Pyorala: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 7:49CARJussi Jokinen: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P1 15:18CARRod Brind'Amour: Holding the stick2 min
  5. P2 4:25PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 4:25CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 4:25CARJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 8:50PHIArron Asham: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 8:50CARTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 9:08PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 9:08CARTim Conboy: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 15:00PHIDanny Syvret: Interference2 min
  13. P3 3:31CARTom Kostopoulos: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 3:31PHIArron Asham: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 7:10PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 7:10CARScott Walker: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 12:15PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
  18. P3 12:15CARAndrew Alberts: Roughing2 min
  19. P3 12:15PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
  20. P3 14:34PHIJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
  21. P3 17:08PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
  22. P3 17:08CARJoni Pitkanen: Slashing2 min
  23. P3 17:08CARAaron Ward: Roughing2 min
  24. P3 17:08PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Cullen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARPHI
40Shots on goal28
3.4Expected goals3.7
73Shot attempts47
17Faceoffs won32
5Power plays4
31Penalty minutes35
14Hits15
9Blocked shots23
10Giveaways12
6Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.7 xGCAR 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHICAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 24/100 · #930 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.69 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.

PHI winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).