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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 31, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

New Jersey Devils 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1 (SO)

Away

New Jersey Devils

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 82% of the time.

TBL winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NJD01311508021238
TBL030616040119

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 0:50NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Mark Fraser · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–0
  2. P3 4:34TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. TBL Andrej Meszaros stopped
  2. 2. NJD Zach Parise stopped
  3. 3. TBL Jeff Halpern stopped
  4. 4. NJD Jamie Langenbrunner stopped
  5. 5. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
  6. 6. NJD Travis Zajac stopped
  7. 7. TBL Vincent Lecavalier stopped
  8. 8. NJD David Clarkson scored
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 2:10TBLMatt Walker: Throwing equipment2 min
  2. P1 4:42NJDZach Parise: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 13:10NJDAndrew Peters: Interference2 min
  4. P1 18:38TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 18:38NJDBryce Salvador: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 2:08TBLJames Wright: Boarding2 min
  7. P2 4:09NJDDavid Clarkson: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 11:59TBLVincent Lecavalier: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 15:24TBLZenon Konopka: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Zajac
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDTBL
38Shots on goal19
2.9Expected goals1.1
59Shot attempts43
36Faceoffs won33
4Power plays3
11Penalty minutes13
17Hits29
13Blocked shots11
8Giveaways12
5Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 1.1 xGNJD 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 39/100 · #753 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.33 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 82% of the time.

TBL winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).