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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 31, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (SO)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Montréal Canadiens

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.

MTL winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
TOR05214210010430
MTL012312111042539

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:12TORAlexei PonikarovskyPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:27MTLGlen MetropolitAssists: Travis Moen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:24MTLGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Maxim Lapierre · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–2
  4. P2 14:52MTLHal GillAssists: Josh Gorges, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
  5. P2 15:16TORLee StempniakAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Mikhail Grabovski · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
  6. P3 9:50MTLRoman HamrlikAssists: Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
  7. P3 16:32TORAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Ian White, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:06TORTomas KaberleAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Jason Blake · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. MTL Michael Cammalleri scored
  2. 2. TOR Lee Stempniak stopped
  3. 3. MTL Scott Gomez scored
  4. 4. TOR Tomas Kaberle stopped
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 6:58TORTomas Kaberle: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 10:14TORLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
  3. P1 11:00TORGarnet Exelby: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 11:00MTLMichael Cammalleri: Cross checking2 min
  5. P1 16:36MTLJaroslav Spacek: Holding2 min
  6. P1 19:20MTLGregory Stewart: Roughing2 min · PPG
  7. P1 19:20TORMike Komisarek: Clipping2 min
  8. P2 1:02MTLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Interference2 min
  9. P2 3:41MTLKyle Chipchura: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 4:54MTLRoman Hamrlik: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  11. P2 8:26MTLMichael Cammalleri: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 12:48TORJohn Mitchell: Holding2 min
  13. P2 14:52TORFrancois Beauchemin: Roughing2 min
  14. P2 14:52MTLJosh Gorges: Roughing2 min
  15. P2 14:52MTLHal Gill: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 1:09MTLHal Gill: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  17. P3 7:42TORMike Komisarek: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Gomez
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORMTL
30Shots on goal39
2.4Expected goals2.9
63Shot attempts72
26Faceoffs won50
7Power plays4
14Penalty minutes20
17Hits17
25Blocked shots23
15Giveaways31
5Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 2.9 xGTOR 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #32 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.59 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +45 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.

MTL winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).