Sat, Oct 31, 2009·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Buffalo Sabres 0, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 014 | 012 | 012 | 038 |
| NYI | 19 | 311 | 110 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:13NYIRichard ParkGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 9:16NYIJeff TambelliniAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Richard Park · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–2
- P2 12:20NYIJeff TambelliniAssists: Doug Weight, Jack Hillen · Snap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 15:20NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Bruno Gervais · Slap, 0.19 xG0–4
- P3 15:42NYIJeff TambelliniPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.37 xG0–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:16NYIJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:03NYITim Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:03BUFCraig Rivet: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:51NYIRadek Martinek: Holding2 min
- P1 19:04NYIKyle Okposo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:04BUFSteve Montador: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:04NYITim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:07NYIJeff Tambellini: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:08BUFNathan Paetsch: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:08NYIJack Hillen: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:59BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:34NYIAndy Sutton: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:25BUFCraig Rivet: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P3 15:25BUFCraig Rivet: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:25NYIAndy Sutton: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:25BUFCraig Rivet: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Ellis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).