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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 31, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Minnesota Wild 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1

Away

Minnesota Wild

2

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.

PIT winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN240506215
PIT11601009135

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:11MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Chuck Kobasew, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:48PITPascal DupuisAssists: Martin Skoula, Craig Adams · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:59MINEric BelangerGWGAssists: Martin Havlat, Greg Zanon · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 8:09MINEric Belanger: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 13:23PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 16:38MINMarek Zidlicky: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 16:38MINMarek Zidlicky: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 16:38PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 16:38PITSidney Crosby: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 18:31MINNick Schultz: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 4:09MINPetr Sykora: Too many men on the ice2 min
  9. P3 8:32PITKris Letang: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P3 8:32MINPetr Sykora: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 11:40PITMike Rupp: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  12. P3 11:40MINJohn Scott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINPIT
15Shots on goal35
0.9Expected goals2.6
34Shot attempts59
27Faceoffs won26
1Power plays3
17Penalty minutes13
22Hits30
10Blocked shots15
2Giveaways9
2Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.6 xGMIN 0.9 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #948 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.11 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.

PIT winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).