Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 31, 2009·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Florida Panthers 4, St. Louis Blues 0

Away

Florida Panthers

4

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.

STL winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA2120728427
STL09010015034

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:36FLACory StillmanGWGAssists: Nathan Horton, Jordan Leopold · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:24FLAStephen WeissAssists: Cory Stillman, Bryan McCabe · Slap, 0.26 xG2–0
  3. P3 8:08FLADennis SeidenbergAssists: Kamil Kreps, Gregory Campbell · Snap, 0.02 xG3–0
  4. P3 17:02FLANathan HortonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 15:12FLAKeith Ballard: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 0:07FLARostislav Olesz: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 6:18STLEric Brewer: Cross checking2 min
  4. P3 11:08FLAStephen Weiss: Cross checking2 min
  5. P3 11:08STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 13:38STLPatrik Berglund: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Weiss
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLASTL
27Shots on goal34
2.9Expected goals2.8
40Shot attempts63
29Faceoffs won28
2Power plays2
6Penalty minutes6
15Hits17
20Blocked shots7
2Giveaways2
6Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.8 xGFLA 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 6/100 · #1158 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.62 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.

STL winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).