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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 31, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

Dallas Stars 2, Nashville Predators 4

Away

Dallas Stars

2

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.

NSH winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL1611508229
NSH11208313433

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:31DALSteve OttPPAssists: James Neal, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.54 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:44NSHShea WeberPPAssists: J-P Dumont · Slap, 0.13 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:15DALBrian SutherbyAssists: Tom Wandell, Fabian Brunnstrom · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P3 3:17NSHSteve SullivanAssists: J-P Dumont, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P3 10:59NSHPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: David Legwand, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
  6. P3 11:42NSHKevin KleinAssists: Joel Ward, Mike Santorelli · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 3:00NSHJ-P Dumont: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 12:03DALMark Fistric: Interference2 min · PPG
  3. P1 12:03NSHJerred Smithson: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 12:03DALMark Fistric: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 6:29NSHMike Santorelli: Holding2 min
  6. P2 15:13NSHKevin Klein: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 16:24NSHDave Scatchard: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 18:07DALFabian Brunnstrom: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 10:59NSHDan Hamhuis: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 10:59DALBrenden Morrow: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 12:46NSHMarcel Goc: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 19:30DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Ribeiro
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALNSH
29Shots on goal33
3.1Expected goals2.9
49Shot attempts60
26Faceoffs won29
5Power plays3
10Penalty minutes14
20Hits19
14Blocked shots17
11Giveaways11
7Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 2.9 xGDAL 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 49/100 · #621 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.51 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.

NSH winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).