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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 31, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Detroit Red Wings 3, Calgary Flames 1

Away

Detroit Red Wings

3

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.

CGY winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET01021317330
CGY061708121

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 14:43CGYDaymond LangkowAssists: Rene Bourque, Robyn Regehr · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–1
  2. P2 15:18DETBrad StuartAssists: Kris Draper, Darren Helm · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 16:17DETTomas HolmstromGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
  4. P3 19:16DETKirk MaltbyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 1:37DETBrett Lebda: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 16:21CGYRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 6:24CGYCraig Conroy: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 10:12DETDerek Meech: Interference2 min
  5. P2 10:34CGYJay Bouwmeester: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 16:02CGYRene Bourque: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Conroy won the faceoff against Datsyuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETCGY
30Shots on goal21
2.9Expected goals2.7
55Shot attempts43
29Faceoffs won28
4Power plays2
4Penalty minutes8
14Hits16
8Blocked shots17
12Giveaways14
10Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.7 xGDET 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 33/100 · #822 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.18 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.

CGY winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).