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Ice Lab

Sun, Nov 1, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

San Jose Sharks 5, Carolina Hurricanes 1

Away

San Jose Sharks

5

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.

CAR winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS0931125525
CAR0815013126

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:48CARBrandon SutterAssists: Jay Harrison, Chad LaRose · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P2 4:05SJSKent HuskinsAssists: Jason Demers, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:27SJSBrad StaubitzGWGAssists: Jody Shelley, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P2 14:52SJSDouglas MurrayAssists: Joe Thornton, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–1
  5. P3 4:20SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Patrick Marleau, Rob Blake · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–1
  6. P3 11:12SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley · Slap, 0.06 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 1:06CARJoni Pitkanen: Holding2 min
  2. P1 12:13SJSBrad Staubitz: Interference2 min
  3. P2 6:16CARAaron Ward: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 17:52SJSManny Malhotra: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P3 1:16SJSBenn Ferriero: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 7:35CARChad LaRose: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 10:27CARAndrew Alberts: Slashing2 min · PPG
  8. P3 13:06CARScott Walker: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSCAR
25Shots on goal26
3.3Expected goals2.4
51Shot attempts51
34Faceoffs won24
5Power plays3
6Penalty minutes10
25Hits41
15Blocked shots10
4Giveaways2
4Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 2.4 xGSJS 3.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 31/100 · #853 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.07 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.

CAR winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).