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Ice Lab

Sun, Nov 1, 2009·Verizon Center, Washington

Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

5

Final

Overtime

Home

Washington Capitals

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.

WSH winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
CBJ0112821112532
WSH11301131200436

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:13WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P2 5:03CBJRick NashAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Jason Chimera · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P2 19:01CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Rick Nash, Anton Stralman · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
  4. P3 8:15WSHBrooks LaichPPAssists: Tom Poti, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–2
  5. P3 10:23WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Brendan Morrison, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
  6. P3 13:36CBJRaffi TorresAssists: Jason Chimera, Samuel Pahlsson · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
  7. P3 16:34WSHQuintin LaingAssists: David Steckel, Matt Bradley · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:37CBJRaffi TorresAssists: Derick Brassard, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
  9. OT 1:45CBJR.J. UmbergerPPGWGAssists: Rick Nash, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–4
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 10:03CBJRostislav Klesla: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 16:08CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 16:43WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
  4. P2 1:11CBJJared Boll: Misconduct10 min
  5. P2 1:11CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 1:11WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 1:11CBJJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 6:10WSHJeff Schultz: Holding2 min
  9. P2 18:29WSHMike Knuble: Slashing2 min · PPG
  10. P2 19:30CBJRostislav Klesla: Holding2 min
  11. P3 2:50WSHDavid Steckel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  12. P3 7:11CBJMike Commodore: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  13. P3 17:36WSHMike Knuble: Slashing2 min
  14. OT 1:33WSHBrian Pothier: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Steckel won the faceoff against Vermette
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJWSH
32Shots on goal36
2.2Expected goals2.5
51Shot attempts67
32Faceoffs won36
6Power plays5
22Penalty minutes14
24Hits28
18Blocked shots8
11Giveaways5
7Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 2.5 xGCBJ 2.2 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 98/100 · #12 of 1230 this seasonSwing 3.38 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 3% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.

WSH winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).