Sun, Nov 1, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 0, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 07 | 05 | 018 |
| VAN | 14 | 18 | 18 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:05VANMason RaymondGWGAssists: Alexander Edler, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 6:28VANRyan KeslerAssists: Sami Salo, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P3 9:25VANTanner GlassAssists: Rick Rypien · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:25VANKevin Bieksa: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:25VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:25COLJohn-Michael Liles: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:51VANShane O'Brien: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:47COLAdam Foote: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:52COLMilan Hejduk: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 17:09COLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:09VANRick Rypien: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).