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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 2, 2009·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Edmonton Oilers 1, New York Islanders 3

Away

Edmonton Oilers

1

Final

Home

New York Islanders

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.

NYI winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM190806123
NYI110213014337

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:02EDMEthan MoreauAssists: Zack Stortini, Andrew Cogliano · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:51NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Moulson, Doug Weight · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:32NYIBrendan WittGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
  4. P2 12:35NYIBrendan WittAssists: Doug Weight, Jeff Tambellini · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 18:36NYIAndy Sutton: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 18:36EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Instigator2 min
  3. P1 18:36EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 18:36EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Misconduct10 min
  5. P2 19:42EDMDenis Grebeshkov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P3 5:01EDMDustin Penner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  7. P3 9:08EDMTaylor Chorney: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 19:33NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 19:33EDMSam Gagner: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMNYI
23Shots on goal37
2.7Expected goals3.6
48Shot attempts65
21Faceoffs won32
0Power plays4
25Penalty minutes7
21Hits29
17Blocked shots12
10Giveaways9
14Takeaways19

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 3.6 xGEDM 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1012 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.87 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 38% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.

NYI winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).