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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 3, 2009·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Boston Bruins 0, Detroit Red Wings 2

Away

Boston Bruins

0

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.

DET winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS0130808029
DET2100709226

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:21DETHenrik ZetterbergPPGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:43DETTomas HolmstromAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Todd Bertuzzi · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 9:32DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
  2. P1 14:19BOSMarco Sturm: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 17:04DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
  4. P3 4:19DETTodd Bertuzzi: Holding2 min
  5. P3 7:23BOSShawn Thornton: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 12:52BOSDennis Wideman: Interference2 min
  7. P3 13:09DETJason Williams: Interference2 min
  8. P3 14:38BOSMichael Ryder: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Begin won the faceoff against Helm
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSDET
29Shots on goal26
1.7Expected goals1.8
58Shot attempts49
36Faceoffs won24
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes8
26Hits28
10Blocked shots19
14Giveaways13
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 1.8 xGBOS 1.7 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 0/100 · #1227 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.53 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.

DET winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).