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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 3, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (OT)

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.

TOR winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
TBL0111100912232
TOR0100191903141

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 18:34TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Mattias Ohlund · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P3 5:04TORIan WhitePPAssists: Niklas Hagman, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. OT 2:21TBLRyan MaloneGWGAssists: Alex Tanguay · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 10:14TORFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 13:20TBLMattias Ohlund: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 13:20TORMatt Stajan: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 13:20TORMatt Stajan: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 14:40TBLLukas Krajicek: Interference2 min
  6. P1 14:40TORNiklas Hagman: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 14:40TBLLukas Krajicek: Fighting5 min
  8. P1 19:37TBLJeff Halpern: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 0:48TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 1:56TORPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 9:00TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
  12. P2 16:22TBLLukas Krajicek: Interference2 min
  13. P2 19:15TBLMatt Walker: Tripping2 min
  14. P3 3:28TBLJeff Halpern: Tripping2 min · PPG
  15. P3 9:01TORNikolay Kulemin: Tripping2 min
  16. P3 16:05TBLMattias Ohlund: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Lecavalier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLTOR
32Shots on goal41
1.9Expected goals2.1
54Shot attempts80
27Faceoffs won42
4Power plays8
23Penalty minutes15
30Hits13
24Blocked shots14
12Giveaways14
4Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 2.1 xGTBL 1.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 56/100 · #537 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.71 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.

TOR winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).