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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 3, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal

Atlanta Thrashers 5, Montréal Canadiens 4

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

5

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.

MTL winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL2131829530
MTL09216213438

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:34ATLBryan LittleAssists: Rich Peverley · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P1 19:47ATLRich PeverleyAssists: Todd White, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
  3. P2 2:51MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Scott Gomez · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P2 7:30ATLMark PopovicAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Nik Antropov · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
  5. P2 19:24MTLMichael CammalleriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
  6. P3 1:26MTLBrian GiontaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
  7. P3 4:10ATLPavel KubinaPPAssists: Nik Antropov, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–3
  8. P3 12:40MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Guillaume Latendresse, Maxim Lapierre · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
  9. P3 13:14ATLColby ArmstrongGWGAssists: Marty Reasoner, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 2:14MTLRoman Hamrlik: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 6:40ATLToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 11:36MTLScott Gomez: Interference2 min
  4. P2 0:38ATLTodd White: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 14:04MTLGregory Stewart: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 16:29ATLEric Boulton: Interference2 min
  7. P3 2:15MTLMathieu Carle: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P3 16:59MTLTomas Plekanec: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 16:59ATLBryan Little: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Gomez
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLMTL
30Shots on goal38
3.0Expected goals3.3
56Shot attempts67
25Faceoffs won23
4Power plays3
8Penalty minutes10
19Hits26
10Blocked shots14
28Giveaways28
7Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 3.3 xGATL 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 97/100 · #20 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.60 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.

MTL winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).