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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 3, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

New York Rangers 1, Vancouver Canucks 4

Away

New York Rangers

1

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 82% of the time.

VAN winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR0401415123
VAN11008312430

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:43VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
  2. P3 6:24NYRChris HigginsAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Chris Drury · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P3 8:48VANRick RypienGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P3 14:13VANMikael SamuelssonPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–3
  5. P3 18:36VANHenrik SedinENAssists: Steve Bernier, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–4
Penalties (19)
  1. P1 5:58NYRChris Higgins: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 11:50NYRMichael Del Zotto: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 15:16VANWillie Mitchell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P2 3:51NYRChris Higgins: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 16:02VANShane O'Brien: High sticking double minor4 min
  6. P3 4:21NYRDane Byers: Misconduct10 min
  7. P3 4:21VANKevin Bieksa: Misconduct10 min
  8. P3 4:21VANAlexandre Burrows: Misconduct10 min
  9. P3 4:21VANShane O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
  10. P3 4:21VANRyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 4:21NYRDan Girardi: Misconduct10 min
  12. P3 6:24VANKevin Bieksa: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  13. P3 9:07NYRAaron Voros: Slashing2 min
  14. P3 13:26NYRMichal Rozsival: Hooking2 min · PPG
  15. P3 18:50NYRDane Byers: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 18:50NYRDane Byers: Fighting5 min
  17. P3 18:50NYRDane Byers: Game misconduct10 min
  18. P3 18:50NYRDane Byers: Instigator2 min
  19. P3 18:50VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Prospal won the faceoff against Kesler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRVAN
23Shots on goal30
1.8Expected goals3.7
49Shot attempts61
27Faceoffs won29
5Power plays6
49Penalty minutes45
31Hits19
13Blocked shots13
8Giveaways9
5Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 3.7 xGNYR 1.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 43/100 · #693 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.40 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 82% of the time.

VAN winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).