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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 3, 2009·Honda Center, Anaheim

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Anaheim Ducks 3

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 68% of the time.

ANA winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT0921028427
ANA17112110329

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:57ANACorey PerryAssists: Scott Niedermayer · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:39PITMike RuppAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Jay McKee · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P2 10:02PITKris LetangAssists: Brooks Orpik, Matt Cooke · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
  4. P2 16:01ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.51 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:55PITAlex GoligoskiAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
  6. P3 8:14ANASaku KoivuAssists: Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
  7. P3 9:13PITPascal DupuisGWGAssists: Brooks Orpik, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 9:00ANARyan Carter: Interference2 min
  2. P1 11:15ANABrendan Mikkelson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P1 14:23ANABobby Ryan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P1 17:03ANASaku Koivu: Interference2 min
  5. P2 2:39ANASheldon Brookbank: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 2:39PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 2:39PITJay McKee: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  8. P2 11:17PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 9:43ANASaku Koivu: Interference2 min
  10. P3 19:59ANACorey Perry: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITANA
27Shots on goal29
2.5Expected goals3.6
58Shot attempts67
25Faceoffs won25
6Power plays2
6Penalty minutes14
21Hits26
20Blocked shots18
14Giveaways7
5Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 3.6 xGPIT 2.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANAPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 83/100 · #184 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.16 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 68% of the time.

ANA winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).