Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 4, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Washington Capitals 2, New Jersey Devils 3

Away

Washington Capitals

2

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.

NJD winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH11106110227
NJD06111215332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:10WSHTyler SloanAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Chris Clark · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:33NJDBrian RolstonAssists: Rob Niedermayer, Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrap-around, 0.01 xG1–1
  3. P3 11:20NJDNiclas BergforsPPAssists: Zach Parise, Travis Zajac · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P3 15:10NJDNiclas BergforsPPGWGAssists: Travis Zajac, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P3 18:23WSHTomas FleischmannAssists: Brooks Laich, Mathieu Perreault · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 8:41NJDBryce Salvador: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 8:53WSHAlexander Semin: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 17:52WSHChris Clark: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 17:52NJDRod Pelley: Fighting5 min
  5. P3 4:53WSHMike Knuble: Boarding2 min
  6. P3 11:01WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 14:24WSHBrendan Morrison: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 16:03WSHAlexander Semin: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zubrus won the faceoff against Steckel
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHNJD
27Shots on goal32
1.8Expected goals1.9
38Shot attempts39
33Faceoffs won30
1Power plays5
15Penalty minutes7
14Hits15
4Blocked shots6
1Giveaways4
4Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 1.9 xGWSH 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 38/100 · #766 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.28 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.

NJD winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).