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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 4, 2009·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

San Jose Sharks 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (SO)

Away

San Jose Sharks

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.

CBJ winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
SJS17116013021338
CBJ1711306020228

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:32SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Ryane Clowe, Rob Blake · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 9:18CBJJason ChimeraAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Anton Stralman · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:17SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Dan Boyle · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–1
  4. P2 16:45CBJRick NashPPAssists: R.J. Umberger, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. CBJ Nikita Filatov stopped
  2. 2. SJS Logan Couture stopped
  3. 3. CBJ Anton Stralman stopped
  4. 4. SJS Dan Boyle scored
  5. 5. CBJ Rick Nash stopped
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 13:42CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 13:42SJSKent Huskins: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 13:42CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 4:09CBJFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min · PPG
  5. P2 15:23SJSBrad Staubitz: Instigator2 min · PPG
  6. P2 15:23CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 15:23SJSBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 15:23SJSBrad Staubitz: Instigator misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Thornton
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSCBJ
38Shots on goal28
2.5Expected goals2.2
63Shot attempts52
30Faceoffs won26
2Power plays1
22Penalty minutes14
22Hits35
13Blocked shots9
3Giveaways3
3Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.2 xGSJS 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 44/100 · #686 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.42 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.

CBJ winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).