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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 4, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Carolina Hurricanes 0, Florida Panthers 3

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

0

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.

FLA winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR0210605032
FLA0401239325

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P3 5:09FLASteve ReinprechtGWGAssists: Cory Stillman, Keith Ballard · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P3 13:44FLACory StillmanPPAssists: Bryan McCabe, Steve Reinprecht · Slap, 0.23 xG0–2
  3. P3 17:59FLABryan AllenENUnassisted · Slap, 0.42 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 7:09FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
  2. P1 9:42FLAJordan Leopold: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 15:03FLAVictor Oreskovich: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 3:13FLAVille Koistinen: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 5:40CARTim Gleason: Interference2 min
  6. P2 8:05CARAndrew Alberts: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 10:16CARTim Gleason: Cross checking2 min
  8. P2 14:35CARJoni Pitkanen: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 13:29CARJoni Pitkanen: Holding2 min · PPG
  10. P3 15:33CARScott Walker: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 16:39FLAMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 18:53CARAaron Ward: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 18:53FLAGregory Campbell: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Cullen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARFLA
32Shots on goal25
2.2Expected goals2.3
56Shot attempts41
25Faceoffs won25
5Power plays6
14Penalty minutes12
31Hits23
8Blocked shots9
7Giveaways5
4Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.3 xGCAR 2.2 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLACAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 11/100 · #1089 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.85 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.

FLA winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).