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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 4, 2009·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Calgary Flames 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)

Away

Calgary Flames

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Dallas Stars

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 78% of the time.

DAL winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
CGY061111511323
DAL01401621000240

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 15:53CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Mark Giordano, Robyn Regehr · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P3 4:49DALJames NealAssists: Trevor Daley, Karlis Skrastins · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P3 8:52DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Brad Richards, Karlis Skrastins · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:11CGYDaymond LangkowAssists: Jarome Iginla, Rene Bourque · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–2
  5. OT 1:25CGYJarome IginlaPPGWGAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.01 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 1:57CGYCraig Conroy: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 8:16DALJames Neal: Boarding2 min
  3. P1 11:51CGYNigel Dawes: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 16:28CGYAdam Pardy: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 17:36CGYJay Bouwmeester: Cross checking2 min
  6. P1 19:39DALFabian Brunnstrom: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P2 10:57CGYCory Sarich: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 12:26CGYAdam Pardy: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
  9. P3 6:35DALBrian Sutherby: Hooking2 min
  10. OT 1:09DALNicklas Grossmann: Delaying game2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Modano
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYDAL
23Shots on goal40
1.7Expected goals3.3
55Shot attempts67
24Faceoffs won25
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
36Hits25
15Blocked shots21
6Giveaways9
4Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.3 xGCGY 1.7 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #153 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.30 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 5% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +45 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 78% of the time.

DAL winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).