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Ice Lab

Wed, Nov 4, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

Phoenix Coyotes 1, Colorado Avalanche 4

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

1

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.

COL winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX0901317129
COL11008311429

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:57COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Kyle Quincey, Paul Stastny · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P3 6:43COLMarek SvatosGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–2
  3. P3 9:52PHXEd JovanovskiPPAssists: Robert Lang, Matthew Lombardi · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:17COLDavid JonesENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–3
  5. P3 19:36COLMilan HejdukAssists: Paul Stastny, Philippe Dupuis · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 0:32PHXDaniel Winnik: Delaying game2 min · PPG
  2. P1 3:57PHXTaylor Pyatt: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 13:27COLRyan O'Reilly: Interference2 min
  4. P1 17:44PHXKeith Yandle: Delaying game2 min
  5. P2 11:16COLDavid Koci: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 16:42PHXTaylor Pyatt: Boarding2 min
  7. P3 7:02PHXMartin Hanzal: Elbowing2 min
  8. P3 9:33COLChris Stewart: High sticking2 min · PPG
  9. P3 12:20COLMarek Svatos: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 13:14PHXEd Jovanovski: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Duchene
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXCOL
29Shots on goal29
2.8Expected goals3.1
62Shot attempts55
38Faceoffs won23
4Power plays6
12Penalty minutes8
15Hits14
16Blocked shots25
10Giveaways13
6Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.1 xGPHX 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 28/100 · #894 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.95 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.

COL winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).