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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 5, 2009·TD Garden, Boston

Montréal Canadiens 2, Boston Bruins 1 (SO)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Boston Bruins

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.

BOS winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
MTL1601206021226
BOS09017113040143

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:32MTLGlen MetropolitAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Ryan White · Tip-in, 0.27 xG1–0
  2. P3 19:08BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Zdeno Chara, Derek Morris · Snap, 0.41 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. BOS Blake Wheeler stopped
  2. 2. MTL Michael Cammalleri scored
  3. 3. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
  4. 4. MTL Scott Gomez stopped
  5. 5. BOS Mark Recchi stopped
Penalties (7)
  1. P2 2:02MTLTravis Moen: Interference2 min
  2. P2 4:16MTLMathieu Carle: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 6:13BOSMarco Sturm: Holding the stick2 min
  4. P2 7:24BOSZdeno Chara: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 17:21BOSMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 17:21MTLMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 13:11MTLGuillaume Latendresse: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Begin won the faceoff against Plekanec
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLBOS
26Shots on goal43
1.5Expected goals3.1
35Shot attempts62
25Faceoffs won32
2Power plays3
8Penalty minutes6
23Hits35
9Blocked shots2
1Giveaways6
7Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.1 xGMTL 1.5 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 50/100 · #599 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.64 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.

BOS winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).