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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 5, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Atlanta Thrashers 3

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

4

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 75% of the time.

ATL winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ2112802421
ATL06218111335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:11CBJJakub VoracekAssists: Jason Chimera, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:18CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Jakub Voracek, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
  3. P2 4:06ATLBryan LittleAssists: Toby Enstrom, Zach Bogosian · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
  4. P2 5:49CBJRaffi TorresAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
  5. P2 11:01ATLToby EnstromPPAssists: Todd White, Vyacheslav Kozlov · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
  6. P2 12:45CBJRaffi TorresGWGAssists: Derek Dorsett, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–2
  7. P3 2:06ATLPavel KubinaPPAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Ron Hainsey · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 0:36CBJFedor Tyutin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 17:15ATLJim Slater: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 19:49ATLNik Antropov: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 0:43CBJAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 6:24CBJRaffi Torres: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 10:06CBJNikita Filatov: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P2 17:43CBJFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min
  8. P3 0:21CBJJan Hejda: Hooking2 min · PPG
  9. P3 3:36CBJDerek Dorsett: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 11:43CBJR.J. Umberger: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Vermette
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJATL
21Shots on goal35
2.1Expected goals3.5
34Shot attempts66
28Faceoffs won29
2Power plays8
16Penalty minutes4
10Hits9
15Blocked shots5
3Giveaways8
6Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 3.5 xGCBJ 2.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 67/100 · #391 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.80 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 75% of the time.

ATL winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).