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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 5, 2009·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

San Jose Sharks 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)

Away

San Jose Sharks

1

Final

Shootout

Home

Detroit Red Wings

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 76% of the time.

DET winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
SJS01117013030134
DET0708116052236

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 14:41SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Joe Callahan, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P3 5:38DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Darren Helm, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
  2. 2. SJS Dan Boyle stopped
  3. 3. DET Jason Williams stopped
  4. 4. SJS Ryane Clowe stopped
  5. 5. DET Henrik Zetterberg scored
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 11:25SJSJamie McGinn: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 11:25DETKris Draper: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 15:07DETJustin Abdelkader: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 11:22SJSDan Boyle: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 18:17SJSManny Malhotra: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 1:02DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 7:02DETJonathan Ericsson: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Thornton
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSDET
34Shots on goal36
1.9Expected goals3.4
51Shot attempts74
30Faceoffs won25
3Power plays2
6Penalty minutes8
27Hits32
17Blocked shots8
10Giveaways10
5Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 3.4 xGSJS 1.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 40/100 · #738 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.38 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 24% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 76% of the time.

DET winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).