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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 5, 2009·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Calgary Flames 2, St. Louis Blues 1 (OT)

Away

Calgary Flames

2

Final

Overtime

Home

St. Louis Blues

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.

STL winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
CGY180801302231
STL060161900131

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:34CGYJarome IginlaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
  2. P3 7:15STLLars EllerPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Eric Brewer · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–1
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 4:04CGYDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 4:22STLPaul Kariya: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 15:30STLT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 5:51CGYCraig Conroy: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 6:14CGYDaymond Langkow: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 8:45STLDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 8:45CGYRobyn Regehr: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 8:50STLB.J. Crombeen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  9. P2 12:24CGYCory Sarich: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 15:07STLBrad Winchester: Boarding2 min
  11. P3 2:03STLKeith Tkachuk: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 5:20CGYDustin Boyd: Tripping2 min · PPG
  13. P3 15:08STLErik Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Jokinen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYSTL
31Shots on goal31
2.4Expected goals2.5
53Shot attempts63
32Faceoffs won40
6Power plays5
15Penalty minutes17
22Hits24
21Blocked shots10
0Giveaways5
2Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.5 xGCGY 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 48/100 · #629 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.55 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.

STL winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).