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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 6, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

New York Islanders 1, New Jersey Devils 2

Away

New York Islanders

1

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.

NJD winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI190708124
NJD01121109231

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:23NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Jon Sim · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:38NJDCory MurphyAssists: Ilkka Pikkarainen, Rod Pelley · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:40NJDBrian RolstonPPGWGAssists: Andy Greene, David Clarkson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 0:40NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 0:40NYITim Jackman: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 0:40NJDDavid Clarkson: Holding2 min
  4. P1 2:19NJDColin White: Interference2 min
  5. P1 12:33NYIJosh Bailey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P2 3:17NJDDainius Zubrus: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 5:37NYIJeff Tambellini: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 13:14NYIAndy Sutton: Hooking2 min · PPG
  9. P2 14:32NYIBrendan Witt: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 4:21NYIAndy Sutton: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Zubrus
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYINJD
24Shots on goal31
1.9Expected goals2.1
30Shot attempts40
23Faceoffs won25
3Power plays5
15Penalty minutes11
17Hits28
3Blocked shots3
5Giveaways9
3Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.1 xGNYI 1.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #949 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.11 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.

NJD winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).