Fri, Nov 6, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 214 | 212 | 537 |
| BUF | 09 | 18 | 113 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:39PHIDaniel CarcilloAssists: Braydon Coburn, Ian Laperriere · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 0:28PHIChris ProngerAssists: Blair Betts, Ian Laperriere · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 4:28BUFDerek RoyAssists: Jason Pominville, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 14:55PHIJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Jeff Carter · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 2:34PHIDarroll PoweUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 10:34BUFTyler MyersPPAssists: Derek Roy, Craig Rivet · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 19:12PHIDaniel CarcilloENAssists: Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.69 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:36BUFTim Kennedy: Cross checking2 min
- P1 4:58PHIDavid Laliberte: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:40PHIArron Asham: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:52PHIMike Richards: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:52BUFPatrick Kaleta: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:14PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:30PHIBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:30BUFTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:04BUFMatt Ellis: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:14BUFSteve Montador: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:14PHIDaniel Carcillo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:21PHIMatt Carle: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Betts won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).