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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 7, 2009·TD Garden, Boston

Buffalo Sabres 2, Boston Bruins 4

Away

Buffalo Sabres

2

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.

BOS winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF07110113230
BOS21121709437

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:17BOSMark RecchiPPAssists: Derek Morris, Zdeno Chara · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:31BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 1:22BOSByron BitzGWGAssists: Steve Begin, Shawn Thornton · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–3
  4. P2 2:47BUFDerek RoyAssists: Craig Rivet, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
  5. P2 18:31BOSMarco SturmAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Steve Begin · Snap, 0.05 xG1–4
  6. P3 18:12BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Tyler Myers, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
Penalties (22)
  1. P1 2:44BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 5:24BOSMichael Ryder: Too many men on the ice2 min
  3. P1 10:24BOSDaniel Paille: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P1 11:44BOSDennis Wideman: Holding2 min
  5. P1 14:29BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 14:29BUFSteve Montador: Fighting5 min · PPG
  7. P1 15:54BUFMike Grier: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 6:20BUFDrew Stafford: Too many men on the ice2 min
  9. P2 11:18BOSMarco Sturm: Boarding2 min
  10. P3 2:42BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 10:38BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
  12. P3 14:00BOSShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 14:00BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 14:00BUFPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 17:10BOSMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
  16. P3 17:10BOSBrad Marchand: Misconduct10 min
  17. P3 17:10BUFTim Kennedy: Misconduct10 min
  18. P3 17:10BUFJochen Hecht: Fighting5 min
  19. P3 17:11BOSZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min
  20. P3 17:11BUFPatrick Kaleta: Slashing2 min
  21. P3 17:11BOSZdeno Chara: Misconduct10 min
  22. P3 17:11BUFPatrick Kaleta: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Begin won the faceoff against MacArthur
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFBOS
30Shots on goal37
2.8Expected goals3.1
51Shot attempts47
31Faceoffs won36
7Power plays3
43Penalty minutes51
15Hits20
2Blocked shots11
3Giveaways4
0Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.1 xGBUF 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 41/100 · #723 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.70 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +13 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.

BOS winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).