Sat, Nov 7, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 210 | 17 | 04 | 321 |
| MTL | 07 | 115 | 014 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:09TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–0
- P1 19:13TBLAlex TanguayGWGAssists: Ryan Malone, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–0
- P2 9:44MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Jaroslav Spacek, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–1
- P2 18:01TBLJames WrightAssists: Alex Tanguay, Jeff Halpern · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:30MTLJaroslav Spacek: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:59TBLZenon Konopka: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:05MTLPaul Mara: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:05TBLVincent Lecavalier: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:22MTLJosh Gorges: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:30MTLPaul Mara: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).