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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 7, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

New Jersey Devils 3, Ottawa Senators 2

Away

New Jersey Devils

3

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.

OTT winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD0611326325
OTT171806221

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:00OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P2 11:09OTTBrian LeeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
  3. P2 15:35NJDZach ParisePPAssists: David Clarkson, Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
  4. P3 4:38NJDDavid ClarksonPPAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Brian Rolston · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:20NJDAndy GreenePPGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 11:17OTTChris Neil: Holding2 min
  2. P1 15:10OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 15:10NJDAndrew Peters: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 18:18NJDDainius Zubrus: Holding2 min
  5. P2 0:49OTTJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 3:20OTTJarkko Ruutu: Holding2 min
  7. P2 11:38NJDCory Murphy: Interference2 min
  8. P2 14:26OTTPeter Regin: Hooking2 min · PPG
  9. P3 3:03OTTJarkko Ruutu: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
  10. P3 3:03OTTJesse Winchester: Elbowing2 min
  11. P3 3:03OTTJarkko Ruutu: Misconduct10 min
  12. P3 3:03NJDAndrew Peters: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  13. P3 6:37OTTChris Campoli: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  14. P3 6:37OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Zajac
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDOTT
25Shots on goal21
2.0Expected goals1.5
54Shot attempts37
19Faceoffs won27
6Power plays2
11Penalty minutes39
31Hits39
13Blocked shots19
10Giveaways13
6Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 1.5 xGNJD 2.0 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #435 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.47 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 11% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.

OTT winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).