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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 7, 2009·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Atlanta Thrashers 3, New York Islanders 6

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Final

Home

New York Islanders

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.

NYI winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL111110113334
NYI32121519645

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:11NYIAndy SuttonAssists: John Tavares, Matt Moulson · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:56ATLZach BogosianAssists: Rich Peverley, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P1 13:34NYISean BergenheimAssists: Frans Nielsen, Freddy Meyer · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
  4. P1 18:52NYIJack HillenAssists: Blake Comeau, Nate Thompson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
  5. P2 0:22NYIBlake ComeauGWGAssists: Nate Thompson · Snap, 0.03 xG1–4
  6. P2 3:42ATLPavel KubinaAssists: Ron Hainsey, Maxim Afinogenov · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
  7. P2 11:59NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: John Tavares, Richard Park · Snap, 0.04 xG2–5
  8. P3 12:03ATLChristoph SchubertAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Nik Antropov · Slap, 0.04 xG3–5
  9. P3 15:35NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Mark Streit, Dwayne Roloson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 15:28ATLZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 18:23ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Diving2 min
  3. P1 18:23NYIAndy Sutton: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 1:39NYIFreddy Meyer: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 3:24NYIRichard Park: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 9:32NYIBrendan Witt: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 14:19ATLPavel Kubina: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P3 14:19ATLPavel Kubina: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLNYI
34Shots on goal45
2.9Expected goals5.0
65Shot attempts72
31Faceoffs won27
3Power plays3
8Penalty minutes8
35Hits25
17Blocked shots15
10Giveaways8
15Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 5.0 xGATL 2.9 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 75/100 · #273 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.03 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 79% of the time.

NYI winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).